Today (December 3, 2004, Friday) will be a memorable day in the recent history of the Ukraine. A just decision of the Supreme Court to nullify the results of the 2d round of the presidential elections, and to declare the repeating of this decisive voting on December 26, 2004, might become a turning point.I have red a large set of articles, news and comment about the present situation in the Ukraine. Not only the positive ones, also some negative opinions, voiced by several sources. The nature of the present "revolution" in that large and populous country has two different, opposing aspects:

(1) Many knowlegeable people here, in Poland, and abroad point to the fact that the rivalry between Yanukovych and Yushchenko (and the political forces behind them) is a "war" between two powerful fractions of the Ukrainian oligarchs: a definitely pro-Russian fraction and a pro- Western one. The common people are drawn into this struggle along the lines of their interests: the Central and Eastern Ukraine as a traditionally pro-Russian and Russian-speaking, with a large portion of the genuine Russian population (17% in general), and the Western Ukraine with their leaning towards the West, their Ukrainian-speaking majority and more religious and ethnic diversification.

(2) A genuine popular "revolution" movement, assembling behind Yushchenko, Timoshenko and other pro-European (but also not totally anti-Russian national leaders). This movement "glorifies" Yushchenko, in spite of all his drawbacks and past "sins". It is absolutely normal, because such is the nature of all large social, political, populist movements. I strongly believe that such a mass movement cannot be "organized" by paying 50 hryven each to rally- participants, or by giving them other benefits. A big, self-

conscious post-communist population of the Ukraine expresses their own aims and is driven by a powerful attraction of a democratic change. People who were ignored by the powerful cliques in the Soviet times and later on, express their will to change things in their own country. And their support to the opposition politicians has been so far decisive in pushing President Kuchma and his cronies to accept an other alternative than the "traditional" alliance with Russia. This Ukrainian movement, comparable only to the former Poland's "Solidarity", might become the core of real changes in the country.

So, to sum up, the Ukraine is facing not only a "struggle of the giants", the most powerful political cliques, but also a very important and decisive popular democratization movement. No "conspiracy theories" can explain this upsurge of civil courage and enthousiasm.

The fight for democracy, however, is in the early stage yet. Many formal and "under-stream" obstacles might be expected. The eventual final election victory of Viktor Yushchenko doesn't mean that the Ukraine will turn her back on Russia. That could be not only impossible but also very unwise. Russia holds a strong grip over the Ukraine by their economic power, industrial, military and other interdependences and by their common history and tradition. Any future leadership of the Ukraine will have to observe good relations with Russia, in spite of their pro-Western policies. The Ukraine might join the NATO and - much later, if at all – the European Union. But their economic and social, cultural, religious and other connections to Russia will remain intact.

But, even if Putin's Russia will have a heavy handed influence over the Ukraine, the Russian hegemonism will suffer a strong setback. There is no Russian Empire without the Ukraine! For many reasons. Therefore, the strategic goals of the Putin's Government would have to be reconsidered. If the true independence of the Ukraine comes true, then the traditional pattern of the Russian influence in Eastern Europe would be dismantled. This could be a major change in the strategic balance, in favor of the West - the United States and Europe.